We don’t know if you heard, but 2020 is a little … different.
But seriously, folks, if there’s one lesson we all learned from 2020—and often learned the hard way—it’s to expect the unexpected. The phrase “new normal” is so cliche as to almost have lost its meaning.
And yet, life goes on, as stores and restaurants reopen, plane seats fill up, and consumers venture out of hibernation and back to some semblance of normal life … give or take a mask, an extra bottle of hand sanitizer, and maybe an elbow-bump in lieu of a hug or handshake.
If there’s two things we associate with the holidays, it’s 1) family togetherness, and 2) consumer irrationality. Many people have been sorely lacking in #1, starved for smiles and hugs from quarantined loved ones. As far as #2 goes, consumer behavior can take a number when it comes to the irrationality game.
How different will November and December be compared to past years? Here are five trends that will define the 2020 holiday season …
1. Black Friday Goes Digital
One thing is for sure … while handshaking may have fallen out of favor, shopping has not. Not only have people found themselves stuck at home with nothing but retail therapy for comfort, but sending gifts has been one of the best ways to express love while socially distant. This effect will only magnify as the season of giving approaches.
The dominance of e-commerce during shelter-in-place orders is one of the big stories of the pandemic, portending a shift in consumer behavior as they acquire a taste for things coming to them rather than having to go out and get things. Digital Commerce 360 reported a 30.1% increase in e-commerce sales in the first half of 2020 compared to the first half of 2019, with overall retail sales up only 4%.
The biggest retail event of the year, Black Friday, will feel the effects of the e-com boom, becoming a four-day extension of its past digital counterpart Cyber Monday. Retail brands will rush to digitize the “browsing” and “window-shopping” experience and manage crowds who do queue up on Black Friday to comply with COVID-19 pandemic safety regulations.
Even more notable than the increase in e-commerce has been the global doubling of BOPIS (“buy online, pick up in-store”). Expect retailers to try and sell out their merchandise for in-store pickup before the doors even open on Black Friday.
2. The Great Loyalty Grab
We all know about the dominance enjoyed by Amazon and eBay in the e-commerce marketplaces, but in the early days of the pandemic, direct-to-consumer e-commerce retailers enjoyed a golden opportunity. In the midst of panic-buying, shortages, and uncertain supply chains, the usual e-commerce hubs weren’t reliable for stocked warehouses and timely delivery. For in-demand items, “Prime Delivery” in two weeks became a thing.
Consumers turned to, and discovered, small e-commerce brands that had product in stock and the wherewithal to ship quickly. According to a study of 14,000 consumers conducted by Criteo discovered that up to 39% of consumers purchased an item from a certain online store for the first time, often one they hadn’t previously heard of, with 83% expressing an interest in continuing to purchase from that store.
This influx of customers for small e-com retailers added to their email lists for upsells and cross-sells. Expect those small brands to launch a full-scale marketing blitz to encourage second, third, and fourth purchases from their freshly expanded customer base.
3. A Return to Flexibility
The Millenial and Gen Z generations have a somewhat well-earned reputation for impatience. After all, they can listen to any song instantaneously, buy anything for next-day delivery, and immediately chat with customer service halfway around the world. It’s a generation that expects instant gratification—they want it all, and they want it now.
Holidays 2020 are a chance to break that pattern and reflect on what really matters. In the midst of tumultuous upheavals in the retail and travel industry, Millennial and Gen Z consumers will have to cope with delayed deliveries, late gift arrivals, postponed film and product releases, and changed flight itineraries as the global economy adapts to its new circumstances.
Maybe their heads will explode … but humans are adaptable. Call us optimists, but look for a return to patience as everyone rediscovers the value of togetherness, teamwork, and the kindness of strangers.
4. Testing Crunch
One of the key features of the early pandemic was a lack of sufficient testing facilities, making it nearly impossible to track the spread in a meaningful way unless authorities caught hotspots early. Even in places where tests were available, labs were so impacted that turnaround times rivaled quarantine recommendations.
Today, testing is much easier to come by. Home testing kits can be mailed in for 72-hour turnarounds on molecular tests, while rapid nasal-swab antigen testing can return results in under 30 minutes, rendering the 14-day quarantine effectively obsolete for all but people with confirmed cases.
As holiday plans ramp up, expect testing facilities to come under pressure again as people prepare for happy reunions with their elderly or immunocompromised loved ones. United is the first U.S. airline to implement COVID-19 testing at the airport; look for its competitor airlines to follow suit.
5. Growing Confidence
Social media doom scrolling hasn’t died down completely, but one characteristic of 2020 has been a return to “what really matters”—health, happiness, and quality time with family and friends. For many people, holiday family reunions matter more than pandemic hysteria, so expect people to transition from shelter-in-place to risk-management mode as they prepare to brave the radioactive wasteland outside their doors.
In doing so, they will discover that stores are open. Restaurants are open. Planes are still flying, pressurized by air that is rarely a coronavirus soup. You can’t see a smile on every masked face, but smiles live in the eyes as well.
Expect a return of consumer confidence as holiday revelers realize that despite the lack of big family gatherings, football games, or massive New Years Parties, the world is still turning, life goes on, and there’s plenty of holiday cheer to go around.
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